Books

Az összeomlás forgatókönyvei

Az összeomlás forgatókönyvei

Generalizing the experience of the 1988-1993 period this volume attempts to present a general theory of post-Communist systemic change applying the framework of standard economics. Its main focus is to highlight the differences of changes in Central and eastern Europe from the stabilization, liberalization and institution building experiences in other parts of the world, most prominently in latin America. Swimming against the tide of the contemporary international mainstream the book underscored the non-replicable, individual features of this process. The book argued in detail why these peculiarities rendered the majority attempts to find solutions by diretly applying mainstream economic insights on the post-Soviet conditions were bound to fail. The main finding goes as follows: why experiences with post-Communist trnsition hardly invalidate general economic insights, however its complexity requires particular care and elaboration when general insights are translated into policy advice/defintely more than was customarty at the time of writing/. Furhtermore it contends and proves that the role of institutions is vital in shaping the outcomes of systemic change in the long run, whereas the role of macroplicies, overemphasized at the time, is relevant for the short term otcomes.

The first Two parts of the book are devoted to analysis of the nature and the heritage of the Soviet Empire, having constituted the environment of change. It shows that during a major historic cataclysm the attempt at any type of optimality was in vain, spontaneity was largely a given. Meanwhile microeconomic laws could not yet be at work. One major finding of this part is establishing the inherent strain between considerations of stabilization and institution building. The latter was experienced several times and occasions since then Part Three is devoted to ithe economic theory and policy of transition. It proves that during a major historic cataclysm the supreme concept of mainstream economics, that is optimality is greatly irrelevant. Thus it cannot be held as a measure in assessing successes and failures in transition. The quality of institutions, i.e typically features that do not lend themseves to measurement come to the fore. This becomes vital both for efficiency and social acceptance. Privatization is though a necessary, however by no means a sufficient condition for sustaiable growth. The quality of regulation as well as the success in building up solid banking are the keys to recovery.

Part Four compares the contrasting experience of Hungary and Russia in testing the validity of above insights. Counterposing Hungarian „gradualism" to Russian „shock therapy" is indicative of the relevance of policy actions against the then dominant discourse analyses. In reality, Hungary institutied an institutional shock therapy, while preaching gradualism while Russia was engaged in re-establishing statehood and continuous short term crisis management. This has put the two countries on differenc trajectories.

Part Five is devoted to the international dimension, putting the central European experience bettween the anchor, the EU, and the very diferent „national model of capitalism" emerging in Ukraine and Russia.

Finally Part Six sums up the findings and concludes that the historically unique phase of systemic change was to be transitory, as it was to culminate in the European social market economy and EU integration. Having come to an end, it gives gradually way to standard methods and instruments of economic policy making and the universally valid international economic and policy insights gain in relevance. For instance, with the passage of time, stabilization, privatization and deregulation are unlikely to preocupy all energy and attention of policy-makers and analysts. By contrast gaining credibility in economic policy, particularly in fiscal and monetary policy, ensuring the transparency of regulation, sustainability consideration – in finance and growth – and the organic integration in international organizations remain major componets shaping comparative performance.

Publisher: Figyelő Kiadó

Year: 1994

Number of pages: 287

ISBN: 963 850244 4

Reviews

Miklós SzanyiMagyar Nemzet, vol. 57, no. 95, 1999Details

Language: Hungarian

Miklós Szanyi: Institute for World Economy, Budapest

Zsuzsa VargaMagyar Nemzet, vol. 57, no. 95, 1999Details

Language: Hungarian

Zoltán BaraEurópa Fórum, vol. 5, no. 2, pp109-113, 1995Details

Language: Hungarian

Péter PeteKülgazdaság, vol. 39, no. 10, pp72-76, 1995Details

Academic monthly of KOPINT FoundationLanguage: Hungarian

Dénes KovácsMagyar Tudomány, vol. 126, no. 3, pp354-355, 1995Details

Language: Hungarian

Attila FölszBeszélő, vol. 6, no. 2, pp30-31, 1995Details

Language: Hungarian

Emil NiederhauserKülpolitika, vol. 1, nos. 3-4, pp205-213, 1995Details

The theoretical-political journal of the Hungarian Institute of Foreign AffairsLanguage: Hungarian

Károly KapronczayValóság, vol. 38, no. 6, pp114-115, 1995Details

Language: Hungarian

József Péter MartinVilággazdaság, p3, May 5, 1994Details

Language: Hungarian

Ádám TörökKözgazdasági Szemle, vol. 41, nos. 7-8, pp734-737, 1994Details

Language: Hungarian

Ádám TörökActa Oeconomica, vol. 46, nos. 3-4, pp423-426, 1994Details

Language: English

B.R. Figyelő, vol. 38, no. 18, p7, 1991Details

Language: Hungarian

Az összeomlás forgatókönyvei